Opta analysis scores Liverpool title chances after Arsenal defeat

A new analysis from Opta has given the percentage chance of Liverpool winning the Premier League title after losing to Arsenal. The Reds aren't as likely champions as they once were.

Liverpool suffered a setback at the weekend, losing 3-1 at Arsenal after a massively underwhelming performance. The Reds do remain on top of the Premier League, however - but now only by a couple of points over Manchester City and the Gunners.

That could have been an eight-point gap with the latter if things had gone Liverpool's way at the Emirates. Instead, things are now incredibly tight and City can actually jump ahead of the Reds if they win their game in hand.

As a result, Liverpool are now less likely to win the title this season. Opta's machine learning analysis predicts the finish of every Premier League side and comparing the results from before and after the game demonstrates the hit the Reds took.

Before the game, Liverpool were said to have a 36.6% chance of winning the title, with City the favourites on 59.7%. Arsenal were then an afterthought, sitting at just 2.5%.

Now, though, Liverpool have dropped to 25.7% while the result at the Emirates significantly improved City's chances. Pep Guardiola's side are now given a 66.6% chance of winning the title - in other words, they'd win it all in 2 out of every 3 seasons from this position.

Arsenal still aren't considered to be in the race. The 3-1 win puts them at just 7.3% - massive outsiders, then.

So Liverpool aren't expected to win the title but the 'positive' thing here is that they weren't really expected to be in the race at all this season. Machine learning can only use historical data to build an analysis and while it's very accurate at predicting results, the Reds improving can't be taken into account.

And they've been improving all season. This is a very young side and an inexperienced one. The entire midfield is essentially learning their roles this season. The fact they're competing on four fronts and topping the table is quite extraordinary - but the important thing is that they've continuously improved as the season has gone on.

Should they improve on that course, their chances will increase along with them. Especially if they can get the better of City at Anfield later this year.