Liverpool's 2023/24 Premier League finish predicted using xG

Liverpool have been projected to finish the Premier League season in third place, according to 'super computer' calculations using xG.

Bettingexpert's BETSiE projection claims the Reds will comfortably qualify for the Champions League this term, but fall short of a serious title challenge.

In the real world, Jurgen Klopp's side sit third after 11 games – three points off leaders Manchester City. The Reds strong start to the new campaign has only really been marred by that controversial defeat at Tottenham and last weekend's disappointing draw at Luton Town.

According to BETSiE, Liverpool will end the season in the position they currently occupy with a projected points tally of 77.6, behind Arsenal in second on 78.9 and (unsurprisingly) City in first on 86.

That result would mean a 10-point increase for Klopp and co from last season's poor campaign, but still some way short of their very best of 99 points during the title-winning 2019/20 season.

More surprisingly, Newcastle (74.9) are predicted to take fourth ahead of Tottenham (67.4), who have started 2023/24 strongly under new boss Ange Postecoglou.

Meanwhile, Manchester United are down in ninth (57.7 points), while Everton (43.6 points) avoid a relegation battle to finish in 13th.

According to Bettingexpert's website BETSiE "projects the entire Premier League season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

"BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

"Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

"Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

"Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

"Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated."

Interestingly, BETSiE's projections differ from those done by Opta, which suggest the Reds are most likely to finish second in the league this season, with a 46% probability.

Opta, meanwhile, only give Liverpool just a 7.7% chance of winning the title. However, more positively, there is a 92.1% chance of securing Champions League football once again.

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