Liverpool transfers: Can Reds afford Trent Alexander-Arnold renewal?

Liverpool masquerade as one of the best-run clubs in world football. Over recent seasons though, they’ve been getting by on reputation alone rather than anything else. 

Richard Hughes is the club’s fourth sporting director in as many years. With pre-season now underway, the club are still looking for backroom staff after the mass exodus following Jurgen Klopp’s departure. 

The club are in an unenviable position of potentially losing Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk for nothing in 12 months while Ibrahima Konate, Luis Diaz, Curtis Jones and all due contract talks in the very near future. 

Hughes has it all to do. 

According to reports, the former Bournemouth transfer guru has prioritised sorting out Alexander-Arnold’s future during this current transfer window. 

As frustrating as it might be for those wanting the club to make moves in the transfer market, figuring out what is going on with the skipper, the vice-captain and Liverpool’s highest-leading scorer in the Premier League era makes a lot of sense. 

After all, if that trio needs to be replaced, the Reds need to keep cash in reserve for next summer. But why should Alexander-Arnold take priority over Salah and Van Dijk? There are likely a few reasons. 

Why Trent Alexander-Arnold is the priority

Firstly, unlike the other two, the No66 is only just heading into his peak years. Well, at least on paper anyway. He may be heading into his eighth season as a starter at Anfield but he’s still only 25. 

Losing the likes of Gini Wijnaldum, Roberto Firmino,  Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, Sadio Mane and Joel Matip over recent years has been tough but all of these players were at the stage whereby any new deal would likely be their last at the top level. 

Having played a lot of football under Jurgen Klopp at a really intense level, it was a risk to give 30-year-olds a new, three-year-deal when all of the signs pointed towards a drop-off in form and fitness was on the horizon. 

Alexander-Arnold has racked up the minutes over the years but he’s still fairly young in the world of football. Letting him leave for nothing would be a disaster for the club.  

Not just on the pitch either. He’s a huge asset off of the pitch too, with his brand being recognised and established. He’s one of the poster boys for Adidas, a brand Liverpool are believed to be getting back in bed with. 

Trent Alexander-Arnold's impressive numbers

While his numbers were down last season, the right-back finished with just four assists in the Premier League, the lowest return since his debut campaign, the underlying numbers told a different story. 

Despite being deployed in a different role - he was operating as an inverted full-back - while suffering a few injuries too, Alexander-Arnold put up impressive creative numbers. He posted an Expected Assists per 90 average of 0.3.  For context, his xA90 average in the Premier League during his Liverpool career is 0.29 and he’s only finished a season with an xA90 higher than  0.3 on three occasions. 

With better finishing from those in attack, the right-back likely finishes the campaign with close to double-digit assists. 

He also added a new element to his game. The positional shift contributed to him developing into more of a reliable goal threat. Alexander-Arnold finished the season with an Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.11.

This is the first time in his career that he’s had an xG90 of over 0.1 and it meant his Expected Goals Contributed average was 0.41 per 90. The England international has only bettered that on two occasions since breaking into the Liverpool first-team. 

Alexander-Arnold was still a creative menace for the Reds. But he was also a goal threat. Combine that with the fact he’s young, he’s a marketing asset to the club, and a boyhood red and it is obvious why Hughes is eager to get the academy graduate to sign a new deal with the club. 

Alexander-Arnold future not clear-cut

But this is where things could become a little complicated. 

Since becoming a first-team regular for the Reds,  Alexander-Arnold has racked up over 18,000 minutes in the Premier League. Add in the minutes he’s played in Europe,  the domestic cup competitions and his cameos for England and he’s on 24,000 minutes. 

That is a lot of football for someone of his age. That is the equivalent of 267 90-minute matches. At some point, all of that football is going to catch up to him, just as it did with many of Klopp’s all-conquering side. 

Giving him an improved, long-term deal comes with a risk. He’s already started to pick up injuries. So, that is something to consider. 

Should Trent be one of the best-paid players in Liverpool history?

Another thing to ponder is whether or not it is right to make a full-back one of the highest-paid players at the club. Per reports last season,  his £180,000-per-week deal could only be bettered by Salah, Van Dijk and Thiago. Any new deal would likely see him earning Van Dijk money (believed to be £240,000-per-week) at the very least. 

Paying your right-back this sort of money is a risk even if they are one of the best creative players in the world. It’s a risk because, if a manager tweaks the system and becomes less reliant on this player, you are paying a full-back game-changer money when they’re no longer able to change the game. 

To further complicate things, Conor Bradley, a more traditional full-back, looked just as effective for the Reds last season when filling in for the injured Alexander-Arnold. 

I guess there are two questions when assessing the situation with the right-back. Would it be more damaging for the brand or the team if the No66 was to depart? Is he truly generational enough to make him one of the best-paid players in the club’s history? 

Hughes has the unenviable task, along with the data team, of answering those questions this summer.