Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool chances a boost in Premier League title race

With one trophy down, Liverpool continue their improbable charge towards a quadruple in Jurgen Klopp's final season.

However, with each passing game, the quest gets a little bit less improbable.

After securing the Carabao Cup in dramatic fashion with Virgil van Dijk's extra-time header on Sunday, Liverpool face an FA Cup fifth-round clash with Southampton, Europa League last 16 ties against Sparta Prague and key dates in the Premier League calendar as we head into the business end of the season.

It's fair to say that it is the league title which fans and players alike covet this most, with the Reds seeking to sign off the Klopp era with a second crown under the legendary boss.

Liverpool are currently top with 60 points after 26 games, one point clear of Manchester City.

While reigning champs City remain the biggest obstacle to Liverpool glory, 2023/24 marks the first season perhaps since 2016 when three teams were involved in a proper title race.

As well as Pep Guardiola's all-conquering machine, the Reds face the threat of Arsenal, who sit just two points back on 58 and have won six in a row in the league (including against Liverpool).

Manchester City v Arsenal Premier League 26/04/2023. Manchester City Pep Guardiola greets Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta before the Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England on 26 April 2023. Editorial use only DataCo restrictions apply See www.football-dataco.com , Copyright: xIanxStephenx PSI-17328-0147

With just 12 league games left to play of both the season and Klopp's reign, the Reds are in pole position and arguably have the 'easiest' run-in of the contenders. However, mounting injuries and the need to compete on multiple fronts make the challenge a mammoth one.

Liverpool's final position in title race predicted

According to Opta's 'supercomputer' predictions, however, Liverpool's chances are on the up.

Adjusting their figures after 26 gameweeks, the football data analysts' calculations give Klopp's side a 35.2% chance of lifting the Premier League title come May.

This represents an almost 10% jump from the 25.7% forecast after the defeat to Arsenal at the Emirates on 4 February.

In addition, at the start of the 2023/24 campaign, unfancied Liverpool were given just a 3.5% chance of glory, having struggled badly the previous year.

Their chances since then have increased tenfold.

Jurgen Klopp Liverpool manager at the Chelsea v Liverpool Carabao Cup Final match at Wembley Stadium, London, UK on 25th February, 2024. PUBLICATIONxNOTxINxUK

Opta still predict the Reds' most likely final position this term as second with 38.1%, while they have 25.4% chance of ending up third and just a 1.2% probability of finishing fourth.

City, meanwhile, are still the strong favourites with a 51% of sixth title in seven years.

Guardiola's side have a 31% of finishing second.

Arsenal, by contrast, are projected as most likely to come third (52%) and given just a 13.7% probability of landing their first Premier League title since 2004.

Next up for Liverpool in the Premier League is a trip to out-of-sorts Nottingham Forest on Saturday, while City face a Manchester Derby on Sunday.

Arsenal take on bottom side Sheffield United on Monday.

Whatever happens in the run-in, Liverpool appear set to celebrate at the end of the campaign, with reports indicating that, following the Carabao Cup success, the club are planning an open-top bus parade to bid farewell to Klopp.

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