Sam McGuire: Alexander Isak has red flags Liverpool can't IGNORE

There appears to be something in the links to Alexander Isak, then.

Up until recently, there hasn’t really been any solid links to the Newcastle United forward. There's just been an implication that he's on Liverpool's radar. Sam Wallace said the Reds are planning to make big signings this summer, akin to when Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk arrived.

Liverpool Transfer News: Nunez replacement FOUND as star likely to LEAVE

David Ornstein of The Athletic then namechecked the Sweden international.

“They will obviously have multiple options on their radar but the only name I’ve personally heard so far is Alexander Isak. Liverpool aren’t alone in liking the Swede. They will only move for Isak if he is genuinely available.”

And if Liverpool are planning a big summer signing, why wouldn't it be Isak?

The perfect striker for Liverpool

He's the best centre-forward in the Premier League right now. Yes, better than Erling Haaland. I'd honestly have Isak ahead of Haaland when the City man is at his robotic best. I think he offers more to a team. If Haaland isn't scoring, he's a nonentity. If Isak isn't scoring, he's still a threat because of his style.

READ MORE: £30m star is already making arrangements to JOIN Liverpool

Newcastle reportedly want £150million for him. They aren't going to get that but they aren't going to advertise the fact they'd likely accept closer to £100million are they?

I say £100million, it could be £120million. Whatever the exact figure, it all hinges on where they finish in the Premier League this term.

If they miss out on top four, they probably need to sell to reinvest in their current squad. If they aren't playing Champions League football next term, Isak likely looks at his options. He's too good to not be playing in Europe’s premier club competition. And it's not like he's shy of suitors.

Arsenal have liked him for a while, though their move for Ollie Watkins suggests they might not be able to afford Isak. Chelsea are keen. They're keen on everyone though and they'd somehow find financial loopholes to make a deal work. Barcelona would probably be in the conversation despite being skint.

Liverpool and Isak are a match made in heaven

Looking at it though, Liverpool make the most sense, don't they?

They have the financial wiggle room. They have a need for a centre-forward. Arne Slot wouldn't make him play in midfield looks at Mikel Arteta.

Isak makes a lot of sense for Liverpool.

He's a good age (25), he has Premier League experience, he's proven himself in the English top-flight and, on paper at least, he's a good fit for the team.

He links play well. He gets others involved. He can drop deep, run the channels and he's used to being paired with direct wingers. More importantly, though, he's a reliable goal threat and a goal scorer. Since the start of last season, he has 40 goals in the Premier League.

Only Mohamed Salah (ha, I used the line) has more goals than the Newcastle striker (19) this season.

A sustainable goal threat

His output appears to be sustainable too. His xG during this period is 35.4. He's scored 33 non-penalty goals from a Non-Penalty Expected Goals total of 30. He's not running hot. He just is hot.

His Non has been consistent across the last two campaigns - 0.62. He's averaging around 0.22 xG per NP shot according to FBref. His shot accuracy during this period is 48%. He gets good chances and he works the keeper.

Understat allows you to take a closer look at shot selection.

He's taken a total of 146 shots since the start of 2023/24. Of those, just 16% have come from outside of the penalty area. He heavily favours his right foot, taking 72% of his shots with his stronger foot and just 16% on his left.

So, his shots aren't varied. He's predictable. But I guess that is what makes him such a threat.

It all makes sense, doesn't it?

Red Flags cannot be ignored

Yet, there are red flags.

The higher the price tag, the riskier the move. There are greater expectations and it makes it harder to live up to them. Look at how Naby Keita and Darwin Nunez are viewed. Their price tags are always brought up.

Money shapes perception.

Darwin was raw when he signed for Liverpool but people ignore it because we paid £64m for him. He didn't set the price tag. But he's judged on it.

For Isak to be viewed as a success, what would he need to do to justify the £120m fee?

Would 30 goals a season for the next seven years be enough? Or would people want 40 goals?

Is that attainable? He wouldn't be on penalties at Anfield. He wouldn't be playing in a counter attacking team with space on a consistent basis. Instead of being the main man, he might be a co-main man. How does that impact output?

It's a big change going from a team with top four aspirations built to your strengths to spearheading the attack for a team looking to win the title. More responsibility. More pressure. More scrutiny.

People won't be as forgiving when chances are missed. There will be an idea that he shouldn't need to adapt. He'll be expected to hit the ground running and if he doesn't, that price tag will weigh heavy on his shoulders.

What Michael Edwards did well first time around was fine value for money in attack. He capped fees at around £40m. He found undervalued attackers and Jurgen Klopp scaled their output. It was the perfect storm. I feel we need more of that again. I'm not going to say no to Isak but I would be wary of paying such a fee.

Then there’s the elephant in the room.

Injury issues

His injury record.

In a recent interview, Patrick Montgomery, formerly of Liverpool, talked about how players were profiled. Key to the recruitment process was looking at the availability of a player. He mentioned it a few times but I liked this particular line: “Can they endure the physicality? How resilient are they? Can they play every game? Are they robust?”

It isn’t just about injuries. It is about whether a player can manage the workload playing for a team like Liverpool. Yes, it is a squad game. But you need to have the capacity to play three times per week. Hopefully, you don’t have to, but you need to be able to.

You need to be able to play to a high level, multiple times per week. Can your body take that strain? Are you conditioned to do it? Do you have a history of managing it?

These are all key considerations when assessing a transfer target. They were under Jurgen Klopp. They will be under Slot, even though the former Feyenoord boss is famed for his ability to keep players fit and available. Well, he isn’t but his team is.

Back to Isak.

He turns 26 this year. He’s yet to rack up 3,000 league minutes in a single campaign.

During his time with Real Sociedad, he averaged 2,006 minutes in LaLiga across three seasons. With Willem II, while on loan, he managed 1,370 minutes.

Isak would be a gamble

For Newcastle, he’s averaged 1,897 minutes across the two full seasons he’s had at St James’ Park. At the time of writing, he’s on 1,984 minutes in the English top-flight this season. He’s currently averaging 82 minutes per start and there are 11 games left.

If he starts all of them, and his average remains the same, he’s going to end the season on 2,886 minutes. It’d be the most available he’s been throughout his entire career. But he’s only managed it without the rigours of European football to contend with.

Last season, he racked up 2,267 minutes in the Premier League and 313 minutes in the Champions League.

The point here is he’s not exactly shown himself to be someone who has it in him to play 3,000 league minutes plus 500 minutes in the Champions League. For the rumoured £120million, you at least want availability, don’t you?

Obviously, injuries happen, and you can’t really account for it. But Isak feels like a Thiago in the sense, he has a history of not being able to play X amount of games. We’re going to expect him to play X number of games and then we as fans will lose our heads when he doesn’t play X number of games.

Because there’s always a feeling that their current team is missing something and that their new team will find a way to keep them healthy and fit. Yet it rarely happens.

Ideally, you want someone reliable and robust in attack. Liverpool had that with Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane.

Salah has averaged 2,900 Premier League minutes during his time with the club, plus an extra 700 minutes in Europe. Firmino was racking up 2,864 minutes and 700 in Europe while Mane averaged 2,700 in the English top-flight for the Reds and 800 in Europe every single season.

READ MORE: PSG director OUTRAGED after VAR controversy

That is significantly more than Isak and these players cost significantly less than the Newcastle man and arrived with significantly less pressure.

It just feels like a risk, doesn't it? And Liverpool don’t usually take risks.

Read More: How many goals and assists does Mo Salah need to break the all-time Premier League record?