Liverpool transfers: Federico Chiesa is the ultimate moneyball signing

Federico Chiesa is the definition of a Moneyball signing. The 26-year-old was rated as a €100million talent following his exploits at the delayed Euro 2020 tournament.

It had appeared as though Juventus had grabbed themselves a bargain when they had parted with a rumoured €60million to pry him away from Fiorentina.

Yet here we are now in 2024 and Chiesa is on the move for a reported €15million. 

Liverpool are very much buying in the dip.

Read more: Chiesa shirt number REVEALED 

The 51-cap international is an underrated asset right now. His contract situation coupled with his injuries and the fact Juventus had been struggling over recent years means Chiesa’s stock has dramatically fallen.

There is no risk to bringing him in. In fact, it would probably be riskier not to make a move for Chiesa in these circumstances. Because, despite the narratives, his numbers are positive.

In his book, Ian Graham said that a sample size of 1,500 minutes is good enough to assess a player if the data is high value. Given he’s playing in one of Europe’s top five leagues, you can assume the data the Reds have on the former Fiorentina man is the top tier.

They will have done their homework on him.

Injury-prone Chiesa a myth

They’ll know that the idea of him being injury-prone is a myth. He had a serious injury and it impacted the best part of two seasons but during the 2023/24 campaign, Chiesa made 25 starts and 33 appearances in Serie A. When the versatile forward is being discussed online, this appears to be going under the radar.

The Juventus No7 appeared in over 2,200 minutes in the Italian top-flight last term. This is the norm for him. Prior to the ACL injury, he had four consecutive seasons of 2,500 or more minutes in Serie A. He was reliable. He then returned with a 2,200-minute campaign to show he’s bounced back and can handle the rigours of regular football.

That is one box ticked.

Chiesa comfortable left and right

We know he’s versatile having been used across the front line throughout his career. Unlike many other attackers, he’s just as comfortable on the left side of the attack as he is on the right.

He keeps the width when deployed on the right and acts as an old-school winger. On the left, he’ll attack the outside too to keep things unpredictable. He’s right-footed but is confident using his weaker foot.

This is evident when looking at his shot profile data.

For example, during his four seasons with Fiorentina, almost 50% of his shots arrived from outside of the penalty area. He was a high-volume shot merchant but he wasn’t the most intelligent with his efforts. During his four seasons in Turin, though, this figure dropped to 34%.

Despite the change in where he was taking his shots from, he was still quite varied with his efforts.

In Florence, he averaged 33% of his efforts with his weaker left foot. With Juventus, this figure is 30% In a nutshell, he’s reigned in the scattergun approach with his efforts and he’s taking better shots, all while remaining fairly unpredictable.

More Mane than Diaz

With this in mind, he’s more Sadio Mane he is Luis Diaz. He shares a few traits with Diogo Jota too. It is quite telling that Chiesa profiles like a Jota and a Mane before their moves to Liverpool rather than a Diaz.

The former two arrived when Michael Edwards was here the first time around and his team had a specific profile for attackers. The Reds moved away from that for a while after he departed and this is why Diaz, Cody Gakpo and Darwin Nunez were signed.

Edwards isn’t going to be hands on, but Richard Hughes also liked forwards with scalable output and a repeatable threat during his time at Bournemouth. You can assume his favoured attacking profile will be similar to the blueprint used by Edwards.

And Chiesa does fit it.

Chiesa fits for Liverpool

Playing for an inconsistent Fiorentina side as a teenage, he posted Non-Penalty Expected Goals per 90 averages of 0.21, 0.26 and 0.36 in successive seasons. He had everything you wanted from a wide forward. The shot volume was there. He was a goal threat and a creator, with an Expected Assists per 90 average of 0.18 across those three seasons.

Chiesa was a ridiculous ball-carrier and so aggressive in one-vs-one situations.

He's still all of that.

His time at Juventus, despite the narrative, hasn't been that bad at all. Especially when you consider everything. The managerial changes. The system tweaks. The injuries. The 26-year-old has still managed to post impressive numbers. The shot volume is still there - he's coming in at around 2.7 shots per 90. The NPxG90 (0.25) could be better but it isn't a red flag. He had an xA90 of 0.28 during his four seasons with Juventus, while also averaging over four attempted dribbles and over four shot-creating actions per 90.

What is encouraging here is that the 2023/24 season was one of the best in his career.

Numbers trend up as valuation plummets

It was the first time since he moved to Turin that he averaged over three shots per 90. It was the norm with Fiorentina but not with Juventus. His xG90 average of 0.33 last term has only been bettered on one occasion - the 2019/20 season when he posted an xG90 average of 0.42. He’s also only bettered his xA90 average of 0.3 from last term just once during his career, when he posted 0.33 during the 2020/21 campaign.

His numbers are trending up while his valuation plummets. He’s the definition of a Moneyball signing.