Richard Hughes let Arne Slot DOWN

Liverpool have made heavy weather of their most recent Premier League matches. They’ve won only one of their last three - a close-run thing against Wolves at Anfield - and drawn with Everton and Aston Villa away.

The Reds’ defensive record has come in for some scrutiny ever since the clean sheets started drying up. But Arne Slot is getting no relief at the other end either.

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Missed chances are beginning to stack up and the Reds are seemingly unable to convert one point to three on a regular basis. Dropped leads are one thing, Liverpool’s faltering conversion rate is another.

Liverpool have scored 60 Premier League goals this season with Mo Salah sitting top of the goalscoring charts on 23. Liverpool have also missed the most “big chances”, according to Premier League data, also 60.

Per Understat, they are underperforming their expected goals total (xG) by around 3.67. That means Liverpool ought to have scored around four more goals than they currently have done.

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If you’re missing chances in 5-0 blowouts it’s one thing but as Darwin Nunez showed on Wednesday night against Aston Villa, when missed chances stack up in close matches then problems begin to develop.

Liverpool's WORST offenders

On an individual level, Salah has returned 23 goals from an xG of 19.32 according to Understat. That’s what a clinical striker looks like. He is outperforming his expected goals and getting goals other players wouldn’t be capable of scoring.

Luis Diaz, for all his criticism isn’t faring too badly either. He’s got 9 Premier League goals from a 7.68 xG. Likewise, Cody Gakpo has weighed in with 8 goals from a 6.83 xG. Liverpool’s issue is everyone else in the squad is underperforming their xG.

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The most egregious example is not Nunez but Diogo Jota, who has returned 5 goals from an xG of 6.81. And under the radar goes Dominik Szoboszlai, who accounts for 3 goals off an xG total of 5.21. Nunez is actually in line with his xG this season; 4 goals off 4.38 xG.

In terms of big chances missed, Salah actually fares worst for Liverpool on 14 per PL data. But that’s more of a shot-volume quirk rather than wastefulness. Jota has missed 9 big chances, by contrast, off far fewer shots. Diaz is on 7, Szoboszlai on 6 and Gakpo on 5. Nunez, “only” 4 although they tend to stick in the mind.

The one against Villa was worth 0.75 xG.

Salah, Gakpo and Diaz all return very similar totals when it comes to goals per shot, as per FBREF. It’s 0.19, which means they score roughly one in every five shots they attempt. But Nunez’s is as low as 0.15 this season; 4 goals off 26 shots.

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In contrast Nunez scored 26 goals off 85 shots in the 2021/22 season for Benfica for a total of 0.26 goals per shot. That’s more than DOUBLE what he managed in each of his first two full seasons at Liverpool.

Furthermore, that season he was averaging 0.50 goals per shots on target. That is truly phenomenal finishing but unfortunately for Liverpool those figures proved unsustainable. Benfica sold at exactly the right time.

He scored 9 goals off an 11.6 xG in his first season at Anfield. Last season was worse; 11 goals off a 16.3 xG. He’s not the biggest offender, however, with Szoboszlai scoring 3 off 48 shots for a total of 0.06 goals per shot. Jota has scored 5 off 35 shots for a 0.14 goals per shot total this season.

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In fact, Nunez has taken fewer shots in total than Salah, Diaz and Gakpo, which you might expect given he’s usually a substitute, but also Szoboszlai, Trent Alexander-Arnold (33) Alexis Mac Allister (27). So tempting as it might be to blame Nunez for all Liverpool’s striking ills, Jota and Szoboszlai also have questions to answer.

But Liverpool’s lack of clinical nature - Salah excused - means it’s no surprise that Slot is looking to the transfer market in the summer for alternatives.

Alexander Isak would be the dream but it’s easy to see the likes of Joao Pedro, Hugo Ekitike and Charles De Ketelaere coming to the club and making an impact.

Salah won’t go on forever; Diaz is having the season of his life and it’s still not enough meanwhile. So Liverpool need to discover a striker with a sustainable rate of scoring and one with the quality to meet the demands of the Premier League.

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It’s not Nunez, it’s not Jota and Richard Hughes needs to do better than he did last summer and in January and actually got and get a forward. Had Liverpool been ruthless enough to offload Nunez and Jota then they might already have a solution for their striking ills.

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