“I think Mo Salah’s more likely to LEAVE”: Contract expert's surprise prediction
It is no secret that anxiety about Liverpool’s contract situation remains high.
Despite navigating the first month of 2025 without any confirmed news that one of Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold or Mohamed Salah have agreed to join new clubs this summer, the stone cold fact remains that all three would be departing come the end of June as things stand.
Whilst the immediate concern is getting points on the board to maintain their Premier League lead and waiting to see who their next Champions League opponents will be, the Reds could do without the almost now infamous contract questions which will continue to be posed.
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On a Fan Edition of The Overlap, ex-Liverpool legend and perennial pundit Jamie Carragher fielded a discussion about the ongoing contract debacle, in particular listening to the viewpoint of Daniel Geey, a sports lawyer and author of Done Deal: An insider's guide to football contracts, multi-million pound transfers and Premier League big business, as can be seen below:
Geey reaffirmed the view that has been widely espoused in the last few months that not all three players will be at the club next season, saying: "I'd go van Dijk [to stay] but possibly Trent. I think Trent's 50/50... I think Salah's more likely to go."
He continued his point, specifically the argument for the increasing ages of Salah and van Dijk: "They don't really renew over 30-year-olds and that's part of the issue."
A good point was raised about the role that data analytics might play in any decision making over the contracts as well, with Geey saying "There's a lot of data research suggesting that players that are looking to renew their deals actually over-perform in the season of the renewal and massively under-perform in the seasons after that renewal."
Carragher doesn’t go as far as agreeing explicitly with any of the points made, but he can be seen nodding in agreement at the suggestion that data has shown a whole host of players who are on expiring contracts see their performance levels drop after having signed their new deal.
It’s an interesting dilemma and it’s not the first time it has been raised this season by pundits and supporters alike that the stunning displays of Salah in particular may suddenly decrease in regularity were he to get the security of a new deal at Liverpool.
However, it could not be levelled at Salah that he has even approached what could be described as below-par performances this season, and it would take the most cynical of people to suggest there would be any serious kind of regression were a new contract offered to him. The three-time Golden Boot winner currently leads the way for goals (24) and assists (15) in the Premier League. He's a frontrunner for the 2025 Ballon d'Or.
If there's a player you break the norm for, it is him.
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