Liverpool FC News: How Man City draw affected Premier League title race predictions

Liverpool may have lost top spot in the Premier League table after the 1-1 draw with Manchester City last weekend, but the performance showed they will be in the race until the very end.

In a pulsating encounter at Anfield on Sunday, the Reds were made to came back from a goal down after John Stones opened the scoring in the first half.

Alexis Mac Allister levelled things up from the spot, while Liverpool dominated against the champions after the break and had chances to win the game.

Jurgen Klopp's side were left rueing referee Michael Oliver's decision not to award a second penalty deep into stoppage time when Jeremy Doku kicked Mac Allister in the chest.

Ultimately, however, the last-ever Premier League match between Klopp and Pep Guardiola ended all square.

While the draw stopped City gaining ground in the title race, both sides were leapfrogged by Arsenal, who beat Brentford 2-1 earlier in the weekend.

With the three-way race at the top of the table tighter than it has been for many years, the fallout of the results in gameweek 28 have been poured over by fans and pundits alike as we approach the home stretch of the season, with just ten more rounds of fixtures left to play.

Was it a good point for Liverpool, or a golden opportunity missed? And what impact will it have had by the end of May?

Liverpool title chances weakened - but only slightly

According to the calculations of data analysts Opta and their supercomputer model, Liverpool's chances of lifting the Premier League crown in 2023/24 took a hit after the 1-1 draw — but only very slightly.

Given a 35.6% chance of becoming champions prior to the match at Anfield, Opta's projections now give the Reds 35.3% — a decrease of just 0.3%.

Little has changed then for Klopp and co, as they chase an unprecedented quadruple in the manager's final season.

However, City were the biggest losers of the weekend according to Opta.

While still the favourites to retain their title, they saw a 5.5% decrease in their likelihood of success, dropping from 51.4% pre-kickoff to 45.9% after full-time.

Arsenal, by contrast, were the biggest winners, jumping from a title probability of just 13% to 18.8%.

How does the 'supercomputer' work?

According to Opta, their supercomputer prediction model "estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition.

"The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

"The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions."

Jurgen Klopp's take on the three-way title race

Speaking after the home draw with City, Klopp admitted the prospect of being in a three-way battle for the title was a new experience for him.

He told reporters: "I don’t think I have ever been involved in a title race with three teams. Germany was usually Bayern, but in one year we became champions it was Leverkusen. And here, there was only one team who became champions usually and we stepped in between one time. I literally don’t know if it changes something. We have 10 games to play, so obviously nothing is decided. There are plenty of games.

"The only thing I need for the moment, I would prefer to have 30 points between us and all the other things, but the realistic thing is are we really in that race from a performance point of view? Today I saw a team that is in the right position, so now let’s see what we can do."

Liverpool, along with their two main title rivals, take a break from Premier League action now, with the FA Cup quarter finals scheduled for this weekend.

The Reds will return to league business after the international break on 31 March at home to Brighton, while new leaders Arsenal travel to Manchester City — with at least one side set to drop points.